CHAPTER SIX 230 TABLE 6-32. ESTIMATING THE NUMBER OF CATARACT OPERATIONS FOR THE NEPAL BLINDNESS PROGRAMME (ASSUMING 200,000 CATARACT BLIND, 1981-1986)8 Percentage of I Percentage of Cataract Patients Operated on Both Eyes Operations Done on People Who Are Not Bilaterally Blind 25% 0% 35% 75% 0% 10% 25% 33% 200,000 226,000 250,000 266,667 250,000 275,000 312,000 332,500 270,000 297,000 337,500 359,100 350,500 385,000 437,500 465,500 8This table shows the expected number of operations under different assump- tions. The columns indicate the percentage of cataract blind operated on both eyes. The rows show the percentage of those operated upon who technically fall outside the definition of operable backlog because they were not blind in both eyes. The numbers in the body of the table show how many operations must be carried out to reach 200,000 cataract blind people under the assumptions shown. For example, if one assumes 35 percent of patients will have both eyes operated and 25 percent extra operations will be done outside the strict definition of the target group, the programme must plan enough surgeons to carry out 337,500 operations. TABLE 6-33. ESTIMATED SURGEONS TO PERFORM CATARACT OPERA- TIONS 1986-2000 ASSUMING STABLE AGE-SPECIFIC CATARACT IN- CIDENCE AND 3.5% ANNUAL INCREASE OF INCIDENCE OF CATARACT BLINDNESS DUE TO POPULATION GROWTH IN CATARACT AGE COHORT Surgical Productivity Operations per Surgeon per Year Year 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 1986 1990 1995 2000 29 33 39 46 15 16 19 23 9 11 13 15 7 8 10 12 6 7 8 9 during the five-year period of the programme if surgeons do 3,000- 5,000 operations per year. Each year between 14 and 23 full-time equivalent surgeons28 are needed. So far, only the period of 1981-1986 has been discussed. One
