226 CHAPTER SIX TABLE 6-30. ESTIMATING THE POINT PREVALENCE OF THE CATARACT BACKLOG AT THE END OF 5 YEARS USING VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT DEATH RATES IN NEW AND EXISTING CASES OF CATARACT BLIND aThe figure of 6'/ per 1,000 is the death rate that would be expected in non- blind Nepalese of the same age and sex as in the backlog. This figure was derived by age and sex adjusting the current backlog to standard Nepalese life tables. TABLE 6-31. ESTIMATING THE NUMBER OF TOTAL CATARACT BLIND TO DIE IN 1981-1986 ASSUMING VARIOUS DEATH RATES between 1981 and 1986, more than one-third of all cataract blind, or approximately 88,047 cataract blind patients, will have died blind before December 1986. Of course these are only assumptions; more precise estimates may be available later, and each revised estimate will change the subsequent calculations. This implies that of the 230,432 people who either are now Annual Death Rate in Backlog (per 1,000) Annual Death Rate in Newly Blind (Per 1,000) 67 100 134 168 201 67 57,058 70,665 82,831 93,702 103,410 100 66,556 80,162 92,328 103,206 112,908 134 74,440 88,047 100,213 111,084 120,792 168 80,938 94,545 106,711 117,582 127,291 201 86,253 99,859 112,026 112,897 132,605 Annual Death Rate in Backlog (per 1,000) Annual Death Rate in Newly Blind (Per 1,000) 67a 100 134 168 201 67a 173,374 159,767 147,601 136,730 127,022 100 163,877 150,270 138,104 127,233 117,524 134 155,992 142,385 130,219 119,348 109,640 168 149,492 135,887 123,721 112,850 103,141 201 144,179 130,573 118,406 107,535 97,827
